Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,288$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,766.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(53,766.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,903$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(870 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,648.7}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,648.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,274$ on 2020-05-14

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $229,540$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,704.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(220,704.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,321$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,133.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,133.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,845$ on 2020-05-14

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $223,096$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,998.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(217,998.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,368$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,506.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,506.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,440$ on 2020-05-14

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,440$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,578.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(245,578.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,693$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,369.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,369.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $199,704$ on 2020-05-14

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $178,994$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,991.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(177,991.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,428$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,307.6}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26,307.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,847$ on 2020-05-14

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,582$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,571.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,571.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,529$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,590.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,590.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,082$ on 2020-05-14

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,680$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,450.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,450.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,609$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(645 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,559.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,559.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,912$ on 2020-05-14

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,827$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,711.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(23,711.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,506$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(87.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,558.2}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,558.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,851$ on 2020-05-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 95%
Switzerland recovered 90%
Austria recovered 89%
Croatia recovered 78%
Germany recovered 78%
Andorra recovered 77%
Slovakia recovered 67%
Denmark recovered 64%
Lithuania recovered 50%
Czechia recovered 48%
Spain recovered 42%
Italy recovered 29%
Serbia recovered 22%
Romania recovered 20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 19%
Hungary recovered 14%
San Marino recovered 8%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,915$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(792 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,762.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,762.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100.2}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.3)}}\) (asimptote \(100.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $147$ on 2020-05-14

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,463$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,665.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,665.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,872$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,844.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,844.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,491$ on 2020-05-14

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,058$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,354.8}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(15,354.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $626$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(98.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{622.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(622.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,027$ on 2020-05-14

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,221$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,141.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,141.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(8.74 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $277$ on 2020-05-14